Ok people.
Musicals that have opened:
Little Mermaid
In the Heights
Passing Strange
Xanadu
Young Frankenstein
Out of all of them, Xanadu got the best reviews. Little Mermaid basically got panned, and YF got some mixed reviews but there's an overall bad feeling about it which some critics even mentioned, re: the overpriced tickets, the refusual to publish grosses, etc. Passing Strange got very good notices, almost as good as Xanadu's, and In the Heights has mixed. I think the fact that both Passing Strange and In the Heights were reviewed by Isherwood rather than Brantley may make them mean less to some Tony voters.
Left to open: Cry-Baby and A Catered Affair. Both of them got mixed to positive reviews from Variety in their out of town tryouts with Catered Affair having the clear edge. Cry-Baby has the disadvantage of looking like an also-ran Hairspray before it hits the street. Catered Affair is the one new musical in the R&H post-Sondheim mold, with a throw-back story. Looks like it could be the next Light in the Piazza.
I think Catered Affair is guaranteed a nomination, but the rest are a little close to call. I think we can safely bet Little Mermaid is out of the running.
In the Heights and Passing Strange. I don't think we'll see noms for both of these; at most I think we'd get one or the other. Passing Strange seems to be better liked but has less touring/box office potential. For one thing, it's a show that depends very heavily on one performer, and that's always a potential risk. In the Heights looks like a weak attempt to be the next Rent/Spring Awakening, but has more touring possibilities. My guess is that Passing Strange will get a score nom, but not a Best Musical Nom. In the Heights may get in as Best Musical on the youth/edge factor.
Xanadu, Young Frankenstein, and Cry-Baby are all comedy musicals based on movies. Xanadu has the advantage of great reviews and having done fairly well with audiences. It has the disadvantages of being a juke box show, and having opened so long ago it's not as fresh as the newer shows. Cry-Baby has an original score and will be fresher, but may look too much like a wannabe Hairspray. Young Frankenstein should be the juggernaut show this year, guaranteed a nom, but given all the bad feeling about it, a Tony snub would not be surprising.
It's tough to call, but my guesses are:
Catered Affair
Xanadu
In the Heights
Young Frankenstein
4 comments:
"In the Heights looks like a weak attempt to be the next Rent/Spring Awakening.."
Not arguing with you or anything but what exactly do you mean by the above statement?
Well, I don't mean it's the author's intent to do that, but I think the reason that commercial producers snapped this one up is because it looks like it could appeal to the same demographic that goes to Spring Awakening.
The Best show there, in your four pics, is Xanadu. Do you think it will win?
I think it's possible. It might end up seeming between a rock and a hard place, being somewhat campy but somewhat mainstream, but of all the possible nominees, it seems to have gotten the strongest reviews and it's turned out to perform surprisingly well. We'll see...
Post a Comment